International Security Environment

The international security environment is undergoing change on an unprecedented scale. The precepts of the Cold War-ideological hostility, bipolar global competition, and the unitary Soviet military threat are no longer valid. While the sum of global changes is overwhelmingly positive, the high degree of uncertainty about the emerging global security environment and continuing threats to U.S. security interests demand caution. The United States now faces more complex concerns about how to effectively manage dramatic change to promote regional stability and institutionalize the growth of democracy and market-oriented economies. Central to this challenge is the ability to contain or reverse negative trends such as instability, terrorism, drug trafficking, weapons proliferation, poverty, and environmental degradation in order to prevent these present dangers from developing into major threats.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union removes one paramount security concern, but leaves other significant dangers unchanged and promotes new destabilizing trends. The rise of new economic centers of influence, new political organizations, and new regional military

powers presages competition for scarce resources or territory. Uneven economic development will prolong poverty throughout many parts of the globe, promoting terrorism and malignant drug-based economies. Traditional national and ethnic enmities will sustain the demand for both high and low-technology weaponry, further retarding economic development while raising the stakes of escalation. The end result is the replacement of the pervasive Soviet global threat with an ambiguous and diverse security environment, full of potential for future peace and prosperity, but also carrying significant risks to the interests of the United States and our allies.

WORLD ORDER

THE CHALLENGE: DETERMINING SPECIFIC THREATS FOR ARMY PLANNING

Transition to the Post-Communist Era

The collapse of Soviet communism has dealt a severe blow to the vitality and longevity of communist states worldwide. The Soviet breakup represents the conclusion of the colonial era, as the last colonial empire (the USSR) fragments. However, the true measure of future stability will be the emergence of peaceful successor states. The twelve former Soviet republics face the necessity of extended economic cooperation; the political and military arrangements of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will be the source of long and difficult negotiations. The emergence of weak and vulnerable nations from the ruins of the Soviet Union could promote instability along the Eur-Asian periphery for decades.

Communism has not yet disappeared as a force on the international stage. China, Vietnam, Cuba, and North Korea continue to resist the trend toward democracy. Several authoritarian regimes with communist leanings continue to cling to power. While many of the newly free states expect steady economic and political progress, others such as Romania, Bulgaria, and large portions of the former Soviet Union will encounter major obstacles to real reform. Finally, the economies of several African and Latin American nations will continue to suffer from chronic debt and poverty, with inadequate technology and infrastructure to enable progress. Uneven development, and the instability that usually accompanies such a trend, will be the enduring characteristic of the developing world in the 1990s.

Terrorism

International terrorism remains a potent threat to U.S. interests worldwide. The end of the Cold War removed several significant state sponsors of terrorism, as well as eliminating many terrorist havens. However, terrorism worldwide has proven resilient, and selected terrorist groups can still rely on patron states such as Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and Libya. The terrorist threat is complex; yet several trends are evident. Terrorists will continue to accept minimal risk, and achieve maximum publicity, by attacking unarmed or undefended targets. Terrorists pursuing wider publicity will seek more dramatic targets with more damaging results, including environmental terrorism as illustrated on a grand scale by Iraq's severe environmental damage in Kuwait and the Persian Gulf.

Weapons Proliferation

One of the most hazardous and widespread trends in the developing world is the proliferation of military capabilities. At least 56 countries are already capable of engaging in mid-intensity conflict, with military forces which meet at least two of the following criteria: 700 tanks/armored personnel carriers, 100 combat aircraft, 500 artillery pieces, and over 100,000 soldiers. The number of nations capable of midintensity conflict will continue to rise, with the majority of the growth occurring in the developing world.

Accelerating technology transfer and growing intraregional competition will result in an increasing number of developing states acquiring advanced weapons systems. As precision-guided munitions and deep acquisition/engagement systems proliferate, future Third World battlefields will become higher risk environments.

Drugs

International drug trafficking poses a similarly intractable problem. Heroin smuggling appears to be on the rise, and the potential exists for expansion of Andean Ridge cocaine production. While the United States has made counter-drug operations a national priority, and has achieved real cooperation from many drug-producing nations, sustained progress is elusive. Developing nations have so far been able to combat threats of drug cartels attempting to overthrow their governments, but the United States could face the appearance of a narco-regime in the future. These facts demonstrate the continued need for military support to law enforcement agencies combatting this threat.

Foreign Intelligence Services

The beginnings of democracy and the sweeping political changes in former communist states have altered the very nature of the espionage threat. Army counterintelligence now faces a disturbing variety of collection attempts orchestrated by known antagonists, former enemics, neutral states, and even friendly nations bent on gaining a competitive advantage in a given field. Nations have always gathered information on one another; however, the focus of intelligence collection is now moving away from military issues to the scientific/technical aspects of economic competition. Through increased emphasis on security and defense protection programs, the Army will husband scarce resources and reduce the risk of losing our technological edge through foreign collection efforts.

Regional Assessments

The end of the Cold War brought with it an inevitable lessening of international tensions, especially with regard to the prospect of global war. But the

changed face of international relations also resurrected age-old conflicts and brought to the fore festering hostilities once subsumed by East-West competition. Although regional conflicts are increasingly commonplace, not all of these crises directly threaten U.S. interests. During a period of evolving international security arrangements, the Army must remain prepared to respond to unforeseen regional contingencies which threaten vital U.S. interests or allies.

Indeed, the role of alliances and collective security agreements will remain a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to promote international stability. The success of organizations like NATO in containing the spread of communism reinforces the U.S. belief in the importance of collective responsibility; the recent actions of the United Nations in responding to Iraqi aggression further illustrate the benefits of this approach. Eur-Asia

The new Commonwealth of Independent States' military leadership will require time to dismantle the huge military establishment. Should the independent repub

lics' search for security end in upheaval, the resulting chaos could pose a threat of spillover violence to Europe. There is already widespread concern over the control of nuclear weapons among the republics, and over the outflow of nuclear technology and scientists from the former USSR.

Barring a descent into disorder, Europe will focus on the creation of new political, economic, and security structures to manage the transition from the Cold War. NATO will provide continuity and organization to case the transition period. A U.S. forward presence in Europe is a vital, stabilizing influence that is welcomed by most of our allics and many emerging European states.

Middle East

The superiority of high-technology weaponry, so starkly demonstrated in the Persian Gulf, has only added fuel to the wildfire of Mid-East militarization. Nearly every nation in this region is pursuing the capability to deploy ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, on top of already huge inventories of modern conventional weaponry. Continued expansion of regional military capabilities, coupled with chronic regional instability and the continued importance of the region's oil supplies, ensure a prominent role for the Middle East in U.S. defense and security planning.

MIDDLE EASTERN MILITARY FORCES Tanks/Armored Troop Carriers/Artillery (Current Inventories)

Iraq, remains to be seen. Several nations in this region have yet to come to grips with deep socioeconomic problems, including the growth of Islamic fundamentalism, endemic poverty amidst huge arms expenditures, and increasing scarcity of essential resources, especially water. Any of these factors could provide the spark for terrorism, internal unrest, or war.

East Asia and the Pacific

Whether in political, economic, or military terms, this region contains a diverse set of challenges and opportunities. Conditions vary widely in every field: from the sharp poverty of the Indian subcontinent to the growing prosperity of emerging Pacific Rim economic powers; from the nascent democracy of the Philippines to the retrenched communist regimes in Beijing and Hanoi; from the tranquility of Australia to the armed truce of the Korean DMZ. The diversity of U.S. interests and the variety of security environments in Asia and the Pacific Rim illustrate almost every element of possible Army involvement within the operational continuum, from peacekeeping operations through nation assistance to regional conflict.

Despite modest political overtures, North Korea remains an intransigent and overly-armed foe. China continues to take only cautionary steps toward economic reform, while squelching the possibility of political opposition. For Southeast Asia, the end of Vietnam's quest for regional dominance could be a key to stability. Nuclear and missile proliferation in South Asia are predominant security problems; both India and Pakistan are developing ballistic missile systems that could threaten the stability of the entire Asian continent.

Latin America

Latin America is another region bearing witness to the spread of democracy. Yet this region faces a threefold challenge to the gains so recently achieved: the problems generated from imposing debt, resilient insurgencies, and drug trafficking. Cuba, onetime instigator of regional instability, faces the near-term certainty of drastic change or collapse. Panama and Nicaragua are prime examples of fledgling democracies that require support to complete their transition. The governments in Colombia and Peru will continue to be besieged by powerful drug cartels. Due to traditional interests in stability in the Western Hemisphere, the Army can expect to undertake major counter-drug, counterterrorism, and nation assistance missions in Latin America during this decade.