in maintenance or overhaul. So a total of six carriers allocated to our needs in the Atlantic region.

In the Reserve components for Atlantic forces, we will have six Reserve component National Guard divisions. Notwithstanding Senator Hollings' comment on his way out the door, we are committed to the Reserve. We have got to have the Reserves. We cannot go to war, especially across the Atlantic, without the Reserves. What we are talking about is how many of them do we need, and I will cover that in a moment.

We will also, of course, have a Marine expeditionary force available to us to give us our forceable entry capability and deal with our additional presence requirements as they come up across the Atlantic.

For reconstitution, if we guess wrong we will have to build our force back up. We do not want to start from zero, like we did in World War II, with wooden rifles and no leaders. We want to keep in the structure two Army cadre divisions. A cadre division is a National Guard division which has within it leaders and equipment, but not a lot of soldiers, because we expect we will have time to reconstitute. We can go get the soldiers and have sufficient time to train them up.

Senator INOUYE. How long will that take?

General POWELL. We expect that it could be longer than a year. General Sullivan is of the view that for these Reserve component divisions—and I think he is testifying before the SASC today-notwithstanding other claims, a whole National Guard division, a unit that size, in order to reach the standard of an Active division, which trains all year long, it probably takes a year.

That is why it is better to do the roundout at a brigade level, where it is easier to integrate within an Active division and have it ready in just a couple of months.

I would yield to the Army, but it is probably in the neighborhood of a year, and a lot depends on the availability of the manpower. Is that prudent? Yes, I think it is prudent, because in this new environment we will be able to watch the Soviets, this land of 11 time zones. If they are starting to go the other way, we should be able to see that in sufficient time to get inside their reconstitution cycle. That is the key to it, to stay inside their reconstitution cycle, stay inside their acquisition cycle, stay inside their research and development cycle, meaning that we can respond faster than they can respond in time of building crisis or a change in the world situation.

We think this is a bottom-up view of the world, a sensible statement, a sensible analysis of what we need for forward presence in Europe. There are those who are saying you do not need any forward presence in Europe, the Germans are going to kick you out. I do not think that is the case.

[Deleted.] Some of the options that Members in the other body are touting today totally eliminate this. They say there is absolutely no need whatsoever for U.S. forces overseas. I think that would be a historical mistake of the greatest kind to make in this new world environment at this time, and I will argue against it most strongly.

I disagree with some of the ideas floating around in the other House, the other body, talk about crises and forget all about our forward presence requirements, forget all about the fact that this great land mass of Eurasia still is a very troubled area.

Next, please.

EUROPE DRAWDOWN

Planned
Reductions by
FY 1995

O165,000 PERSONNEL

O APPROXIMATELY

200,000 DEPENDENTS

O APPROXIMATELY
500 SITES

Reductions to Date

87,000 PERSONNEL

OVER 100,000 DEPENDENTS
463 SITES IDENTIFIED FOR
CLOSURE

Now, that is what it looks like from the bottom up. Anybody can do a bottom-up analysis. Congressman Les Aspin, my dear friend, can do a bottom-up analysis. The Brookings Institute can do a bottom-up analysis. And we can debate all day long whether the right number of divisions is 10 or 12 or 13, or whether the right number of Marines is 159,000 or 177,000 or how many carriers you have. But I have to live in a top-down world. I am responsible, as are the members of this committee, the Congress and the President are responsible, for the men and women who work in uniforms today, who are going down to some lower level.

FORWARD PRESENCE DRAWDOWN

Let me show you what that means for just Europe, the Atlantic force concept, the Europe part of the Atlantic force concept. A year and one-half ago, we had 314,000 troops in Europe. By 1995 we will bring home 165,000 of those, 200,000 dependents, and close approximately 500 sites. This is happening now.

General Motors the other day announced that they would reduce 74,000 people by attrition over a period of 3 years. The U.S. Army is reducing that many in a period of 10 months, bringing them back from Europe. Some of them are going out of the force if they are toward the end of their contract.

But most of these folks are still under contract. We have to find a home for every one of them. We have to find a job and an assignment for every one of them: a school for every one of these children that are coming home. This is not a simple problem.

Let me discuss the reductions to date, just since the end of Desert Storm. Keep in mind that a year ago we had everybody frozen, nobody could leave the force-even if your contract was up, we froze you. Why? There was a war going on. So this reduction really only began after Desert Storm. In the last few months, we have put 87,000 people out of Europe. We have over 100,000 dependents to move. We are moving at a rate of 500 a day.

A total of 463 sites have been identified for closure. We are bringing what was 314,000 less than 2 years ago down to 150,000 by fiscal year 1995, a massive relocation of force from Europe back to the United States.

Now, is 150,000 the right number, residual number? I think it is. I certainly think it is the place where we ought to level off before we get to some of the more exciting numbers that are being tossed around. The fact of the matter is you can pick any number you want. You could make it 50,000, you could make it 25,000. But I cannot bring them out any faster than this, Mr. Chairman, members of the subcommittee, or else I start to do terrible things to these young people, who are now sitting around in their barracks reading Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times, and looking at their bonuses for getting out of the force.

I almost cried last week when I opened up Air Force Times and the headline was: "Punching Out," big bold headlines on their cover, "Punching Out." Troops are thinking of punching out because they are seeing people saying we are skeptical of the base force, we are skeptical of you, we are skeptical of what you are still doing there, we are skeptical of you being in Europe, we are going to give you bonuses, get out of the force.

We can only take it down at about this rate or we risk doing some terrible things to that force.

Senator DECONCINI. What are the risks, General?

General PoWELL. Senator?

Senator DECONCINI. What are the risks if you bring them down faster?

General POWELL. Can I get back to that in a moment, Senator? Next chart.

By the way, the residual force is divisions in Europe, three plus tactical fighter wings and the carriers here. These little flames are just to show that we have got a good little war going on in Yugoslavia, one in Georgia, another one about to break out in Armenia, and Mr. Qaddafi is still here. I do not expect we will get involved in any one of these, but there could be some spillover. It is still a region of great instability.

Now we will come to your question.

Senator DECONCINI. Thank you.

General POWELL. Just to illustrate, in Germany alone, we are in the process of closing 350 sites. So people who say, well, you are not really coming out, you are not closing-we are closing. The little post where I started my career, is right here just west of Fulda, a place called Gunghausen. I was there as a second lieutenant, I went back as a corps commander and owned the same place as a corps commander.

About 6 weeks ago they closed it, took the post library and sent it off to East Germany for the new German citizens to read our books, and then the last troops marched out of that place to the tune of "When Johnny Comes Marching Home Again," and they gave the keys to the mayor as they left.

We really are coming out. This is not fooling around. We are doing it as fast as we can.

Next.

The issue that Senator Hollings raised. There is a direct linkage between the Active component, AC, and the Reserve component. The Reserve components don't exist in isolation, with no relationship to the missions that are to be performed and to their Active component counterparts. This "AC 100,000" reflects a typical U.S. Army corps.

This is the symbol for the corps headquarters. And within that corps you will find an armored division, such as the 2d Armored Division, which used to be located at Fort Hood, TX, and utilized as a reinforcing unit back to Germany.

In Germany you had the 8th Infantry Division, located in Badno, no. I will think of it in a minute. It was one of my divisions when I was a corps commander: the 8th Infantry Division, the 3d Armored Division in Frankfurt, Germany, and the 9th Infantry Division was at Fort Lewis, WA, which was also a reinforcing unit to Europe.

So this corps, this notional Army corps-let us call it the VII U.S. Corps-had these four divisions, two actually in Europe, one coming from Fort Hood, and another one from Fort Lewis, all in the Active structure, to fight on the central plains of Europe against the Red Army.

They were backed up by a cavalry regiment, three artillery brigades, an aviation brigade, air defense, engineers, military intelligence, a large logistics organization called a corps support command, and a signal brigade.