Global Forecasts and Predictions for the ESCWA Region, العدد 1

ADF FD Akaike Information Criterion annex figure annex table assumes a restricted Bahrain cent cointegrating vector COINTEGRATION TESTS converge to zero country's currency debt service debt sustainability debt/GDP double asterisk Egypt ESCWA member countries ESCWA region exchange rate misalignments exchange rate regime exports fiscal and monetary Fiscal developments fiscal policy sustainability fiscal reforms fiscal variables fixed exchange rate forecast foreign debt foreign reserves GDP growth government deficit government revenues government spending GREV gross domestic product indicates significance inflation International Financial Statistics International Monetary Fund Jordan Kuwait Lebanon linear deterministic trend long-run equilibrium relationship macroeconomic monetary and fiscal monetary policy non-diversified economies Phillips-Perron test present-value constraint pressure public debt public sector real exchange rate recurrent budget deficits region's diversified economies restricted linear deterministic revenue series REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES selected ESCWA member single asterisk stationarity Syrian Arab Republic test assumes UNIT ROOT TESTS United Arab Emirates United States dollar unsustainable