Info-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe UncertaintyElsevier, 11/10/2006 - 384 من الصفحات Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models.
|
من داخل الكتاب
النتائج 1-5 من 86
... defines uncertainty as an information gap, as “the difference between the amount of information required to perform the task and the amount of information already possessed by the organization.” [76, p.5]. Laufer identifies nine ...
... define a fairly wide selection of info-gap models of uncertainty, and discuss typical considerations for choosing a model. The reader may wish to skip this section on a first reading, and refer to it as the need arises. On the other ...
... defined as a quadratic function, in analogy to the energy per unit time of an electric current which is quadratic in the current, or in analogy to the energy of deflection in a rigid beam which is quadratic in the curvature. One type of ...
... Define the following set of functions: S = {u(t): –)(t) < u(t) < p(t)} (2.11) S is a set of functions in a fixed envelope defined by +1}(t), centered at zero. For any set, such as S, and any real number, such as O., we define OS as the ...
... define a very general class of envelope-bound info-gap models for vector-valued functions. Eq.(2.14) is an envelope ... defined as: Ur { u : ∥ ∥∥V1/2 (u − ̃u) (α, ̃u)= ∥ ∥ ∥ r } , α ≥ 0 (2.19) ≤α U2 (α, ̃u) is precisely the ...
المحتوى
1 | |
9 | |
37 | |
4 Value Judgments | 115 |
5 Antagonistic and Sympathetic Immunities | 129 |
6 Gambling and Risk Sensitivity | 149 |
7 Value of Information | 185 |
8 Learning | 207 |
10 Hybrid Uncertainties | 249 |
11 RobustSatisficing Behavior | 267 |
Risk Assessment in Project Management | 297 |
13 Implications of InfoGap Uncertainty | 317 |
References | 347 |
Author Index | 357 |
Subject Index | 361 |
9 Coherent Uncertainties and Consensus | 231 |